Systematic Doping in Kenya? The Stats Tell the Story

James Templeton is an athlete manager and in his stable are many of the world’s best Kenyan athletes, such as 800m Olympic Champion David Rudisha. Below is a fascinating assessment he has put together of the statistics around the systematic doping in Russia, with a comparison to Kenyan athletes who have tested positive in recent times.

As athletics and the wider sporting community absorbs the implications of the WADA 323-page report on systematic Russian doping, let’s not pretend that we haven’t had compelling evidence of this beforehand. I would like to present a bit of analysis about a small but significant segment of Russian running and doping positives; an analysis that I think will give it some perspective.

It has been unfortunate to say the least that certain people within the sport and the wider sports commentators have insinuated that there is a similar problem (of systemised doping) in Kenya as there is in Russia. The facts below do not bear this out.

It is true there have been doping positives in Kenya, but almost exclusively outside the elite track world. These are individual cases and the Kenyan government has been implored to crack down hard on the rogue doctors known to be actively pushing and encouraging young and unproven athletes to dope. This is not however systematic doping among elite athletes as it is in Russia.

I have chosen to analyse/compare the doping convictions of Russian 800 & 1500 female world-class athletes with Kenyan 800 & 1500 male world-class runners. For the purpose of this analysis I have chosen world-class to mean an athlete who has been ranked in the world top 20 in the last ten years. I have chosen to compare these because they are similar in size and dominance in the athletics world.

In a nutshell,

13 (34%) of 38 individual Russian 800m or 1500m women have either tested positive or been recommended by WADA to serve a life ban. Of these 13 only one of them failed an actual urine test. The rest were caught either through the biological (blood) passport scheme (which has played an increasing role in the fight against doping these last ten years) or with attempting to tamper with the system. In other words these are outright cheats, not those who may have misread a label on a medication.
They were cheating in a planned and organised fashion.

Of the 47 different Kenyan male 800m & 1500m runners, none has tested positive.

Those of us full-time on the athletics circuit are not the least bit surprised to hear anything about systematic doping with Russian female athletes. There has recently been scandal and outrage at supposed cover-ups of Russian doping, yet even with the cover up we still have 34% of a fairly significant portion of runners with doping convictions. Were these 34% simply the unlucky ones, where the systematic doping and concealment of the Russian regime failed to protect them?

STATISTICS – RUSSIA

Of the 38 Russian female 800m & 1500m runners who have appeared in the world top twenty performances over the last ten years, 13 have either tested positive or been recommended by WADA to serve a life ban (Savinova & Poistogova only last week). Refer below for lists.

Four athletes who tested positive were on both 800 & 1500 lists; the total of 13 doesn’t double-count them nor do two others who were in both lists as part of the 38.

STATISTICS – KENYA

Of the 47 Kenyan male 800m & 1500m runners who have appeared in the world top twenty performances over the last ten years, no-one has tested positive.

Four athletes were on both 800 & 1500 lists.

ANALYSIS

The lists are similar in size – 25 Kenyan men have produced a performance that at some stage in the last ten years has ranked in the top 20 performances of that year (obviously some athletes many times more than once eg in the case of David Rudisha who has been in the top 20 for nine consecutive years since 2007. But he is just one of the 25 different Kenyans in 800). There are 24 Russian women (all listed below). There are 26 different Kenyan male 1500m runners and 20 Russian female 1500m runners.

Taking out the double-counting of athletes who appeared on both 800 & 1500 lists, there are 38 world-class Russian female runners of the last ten years and 47 Kenyan males.

It is interesting that only one (Yelena Kanales) of the thirteen has actually tested positive to a banned substance. The other twelve are as a result of the biological passport and blood profiling system that has proven effective in detecting cheats since 2006. For those that claim there is a deficiency of out-of-competition testing in Kenya it should be noted that Kenyans provide the same annual blood samples and have their profiles analysed over time.

Reasons for Russian women positives (800/1500) since 2006:-

“Stanozolol & Recombinant EPO” – Yelena Kanales

“Tampering or attempted tampering with doping control” – Yuliya Chizenko, Yelena Soboleva, Svetlana Cherkasova, Tatyana Tomashova, Olga Yegorova

“Use/Attempted use of a prohibited substance or prohibited method” – Svetlana Klyuka, Anna Alminova, Yekaterina Kostetskaya, Yuliya Stepanova, Yevgeniya Zinurova

WADA “recommended life ban” – Mariya Savinova, Yekaterina Poistogova

DETAILED LISTS

800m world ranked Russian females since 2006 (best performance and year of that performance noted). * signifies has either served a doping ban or been recommended for one

Of the 24 Russian 800m women of the last ten years, 9 have either tested positive and served a doping ban or been recommended by WADA to serve a life ban (in the recent case of Savinova & Poistogova).

1:55.87 * Mariya Savinova 2011 (recommended by WADA to be banned for life)
1:56.00 Tatyana Andrianova 2008
1:56.64 * Svetlana Klyuka 2008 (banned 26.04.07 – 30.04.11)
1:56.67 * Yekaterina Kostetskaya 2008 (banned 21.01.13 – 20.01.15) #
1:57.07 * Yuliya Chizhenko 2006 (banned 27.04.07 – 30.04.11) #
1:57.23 * Svetlana Cherkasova 2006 (banned 26.04.07 – 30.04.11)
1:57.24 Olga Kotlyarova 2006
1:57.28 * Yelena Soboleva 2006 (banned 26.04.07 – 30.04.11) #
1:57.53 * Yekaterina Poistogova 2012 (recommended by WADA to be banned for life) #
1:57.77 Yelena Kotulskaya 2012
1:57.82 Irina Maracheva 2012
1:57.9 Mariya Shapayeva 2008
1:58.04 * Yevgeniya Zinurova 2008 (banned 13.09.11 – 12.09.13)
1:58.26 Mariya Dryakhlova 2006
1:58.27 Natalya Tsyganova 2006
1:58.55 Tatyana Markelova 2012
1:58.70 Svetlana Karamasheva 2014
1:58.75 Anastasiya Bazdyreva 2015
1:58.80 Oksana Zbrozhek 2007 #
1:58.99 * Yuliya Stepanova 2009 (banned 28.01.13 – 27.01.15)
1:59.17 Yekaterina Sharmina 2011 #
1:59.21 Yekaterina Kupina 2013
1:59.21 Natalya Panteleyeva 2006
1:59.54 Svetlana Rogozina 2014
# denotes appears on both lists

1500m world ranked Russian females since 2006 (best performance and year of that performance noted). * signifies has either served a doping ban or been recommended for one

Of the 20 Russian 1500m women of the last ten years, 8 have either tested positive and served a doping ban or been recommended by WADA to serve a life ban (in the recent case of Savinova & Poistogova).

3:55.68 * Yuliya Chizhenko 2006 (banned 27.04.07 – 30.04.11) #
3:56.43 * Yelena Soboleva 2006 (banned 26.04.07 – 30.04.11) #
3:56.91 * Tatyana Tomashova 2006 (banned 26.04.07 – 30.04.11)
3:59.61 Svetlana Karamasheva 2012
3:59.66 Natalya Yevdokimova 2009
4:00.11 * Yekaterina Poistogova 2012 (recommended by WADA to be banned for life) #
4:00.53 Kristina Ugarova 2012
4:00.81 Natalya Panteleyeva 2006
4:00.86 Oksana Zbrozhek 2009 #
4:01.31 * Olga Yegorova 2006 (banned 07.04.07 – 30.04.11)
4:01.46 Anna Schchagina 2015
4:01.68 Yekaterina Sharmina 2011 #
4:01.70 Yuliya Zaripova 2012
4:01.77 * Yekaterina Kostetskaya 2011 (banned 21.01.13 – 20.01.15) #
4:02.02 * Anna Alminova 2007 (banned 16.12.11 – 15.05.14)
4:02.23 * Yelena Kanales 2006 (banned 26.02.09 – 25.02.12)
4:02.34 Gulnara Galkina 2009
4:02.49 Yevgeniya Zolotova 2009
4:03.36 Olesya Mikheyeva 2007
4:04.5 Olga Komyagina 2007
# denotes appears on both lists

800m world ranked Kenyan males since 2006 (best performance and year of that performance noted).
1:40.91 David Rudisha 2012
1:42.53 Timothy Kitum 2012
1:42.67 Alfred Yego 2009
1:42.84 Ferguson Cheruiyot 2014
1:42.95 Boaz Lalang 2010
1:43.13 Abraham Rotich 2012
1:43.15 Asbel Kiprop 2011 #
1:43.31 Wilfried Bungei 2006
1:43.40 Leonard Kosencha 2012
1:43.56 Robert Biwott 2015 #
1:43.72 Jackson Kivuva 2010
1:43.76 Job Kinyor 2012
1:43.77 Abraham Kibware 2010
1:43.81 Edwin Melly 2012
1:43.9A Jeremiah Mutai 2013
1:43.95 Alfred Kipketer 2014
1:43.96A Anthony Chemut 2012
1:43.99 David Mutua 2011
1:44.12 William Yiampioy 2006
1:44.24 Ismael Kombich 2006 #
1:44.51A Willy Tarbei 2015
1:44.52 Gilbert Kipchoge 2008
1:44.77 Richard Kiplagat 2010
1:44.79 Reuben Bett 2009
1:44.86 Augustine Choge 2009 #
# denotes appears on both lists

1500m world ranked Kenyan males since 2006 (best performance and year of that performance noted).
3:26.34 Asbel Kiprop 2015 #
3:27.64 Silas Kiplagat 2014
3:28.81 Ronald Kwemoi 2014
3:29.02 Daniel Kipchirchir Komen 2006
3:29.47 Augustine Choge 2009 #
3:29.50 Caleb Ndiku 2013
3:29.67 Elijah Manangoi 2015
3:29.77 Nixon Chepseba 2012
3:30.10 Robert Biwott 2015 #
3:30.20 Haron Keitany 2009
3:30.34 Collins Cheboi 2015
3:30.61 James Magut 2014
3:30.77 Bethwell Birgen 2013
3:31.18 Shadrack Korir 2007
3:31.36 Alex Kipchirchir 2006
3:31.52 Nicholas Kemboi 2010
3:31.61 Benson Seurei 2012
3:31.67 Suleiman Simotwo 2006
3:31.70 William Tanui 2009
3:31.85 Isaac Songok 2006
3:31.97 Elkana Angwenyi 2006
3:32.55 Geoffrey Rono 2008
3:32.83 Remmy Limo 2010
3:33.31 Ismael Kombich 2010 #
3:33.39 Geoffrey Barusei 2012
3:33.81 Elijah Kiptoo 2012
(26 of which 4 also in 800)
# denotes appears on both lists